Aftershocks

An earthquake causes chaos. It often brings further chaos in its wake in the form of aftershocks and tsunamis.
The European Union referendum is doing likewise. The old certainties of countries and their political tribes are in danger of disappearing under the rubble and the waves.

The Conservatives and Labour now realise that at least half of the people who used to support them cannot be relied upon to follow the party line.

The public have discovered that politicians who normally tell you their opponents are idiots, can park their scorn and work with the opposition for a specific cause.

Westminster has discovered that Scotland is cleverer than it is. Northern bits of England think the government doesn't understand them or listen to them and deserves a good kicking. They are seduced by charlatans who tell them all their problems can be solved by getting out of Europe and stopping immigration.
In Scotland the Scottish National Party does understand its people, from the Gorbals to the Hebrides. They are pro-Europe, pro-immigration and feeling good about themselves. And the referendum has given them another reason for getting out of the UK.

Out of all this I expect to see new parties created, more coalition governments, more devolved power, more internet polls to test an idea before it is put to an official vote.

And we could see the return of an old idea - the city state, If a union of countries is too unwieldy, why not a union of cities. London, New York, Paris have more in common with each other than they have with the rest of their country. Sadiq Khan, the London mayor, and his Paris counterpart Anne Hidalgo wrote a joint letter to the FT this week suggesting more co-operation.

Blame game

Disappointing referendum result. Life will not be better out of the European Union.
The have nots will have even less and will have to find someone else to blame. Those who are celebrating today will help them - Donald Trump, Marine le Pen, Geert Wilders.
The EU will be better off without Britain opting out of this and that. It will move towards 'ever-closer union' and life there will get better.

United

As anyone who reads this blog knows, I am a European. I think the European Union is a good idea. Working with other countries is good; working alone is bad.

I also like immigrants. Anyone who has the initiative to leave where they are and go somewhere else to get a better life is likely to be more successful than somebody who stays in Hull or Tirana and complains that there are no jobs.

And I question the belief that where we are born defines us. Governments think it does and gives us passports to reinforce that view. Politicians also claim that people who were born somewhere else are sufficiently different to be a threat. 
In this internet-connected society, we are defined by who we are, who our friends are, what interests and beliefs we have. I have more in common with people who have worked in newspapers, people who follow football and people interested in technology, wherever they are in the world, than I have with people in Britain who are interested in religion or TV personalities.
My interest in politics is not soley in Westminster; it is in how people in different countries tackle the problems we all face.

The internet is international. Big companies are international. Refugees are international. Crime and terrorism are international. If nation states are to survive, they must join forces with other nation states to become international, too.
Deciding to pull out of an international group because you don't like foreigners or you think our governments are so good they should be allowed to work without any help from outside, is obtuse.
And politicians who play on people's fears about immigrants have always been dangerous.

Please vote Remain on Thursday.